News

Macro Commentary: By: Ariel Segal Beating all estimates, nonfarm payrolls increased by 916k in the month of March. This is the largest increase since August and the unemployment rate fell to 6%. A surge of 280,000 jobs in leisure and hospitality was the largest contributor to job gains. President Joe Biden revealed a $2.25 trillion … Read more

Macro Commentary:  By: Ariel Segal U.S. durable goods declined in the month of February by 1.1%, while surveyed estimates expected a 0.5% increase. The decrease was broad and not concentrated to a single industry. Supply chain issues are still limiting production, but the gradual increase in demand and stimulus is a boon to these manufacturers. … Read more

Macro Commentary:  By: Ariel Segal The upward revision for the January retail sales number balanced out February’s reported -3.0% mark, which was below the surveyed -0.5% estimate. Inclement weather in large portions of the country slowed down sales, but March sales are expected to pick up again with the warmer weather and fresh round of … Read more

Macro Commentary:  By: Ariel Segal Inflation indicators, CPI and PPI, were both reported to be in line with expectations last week. As investors keep a close eye on inflation, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said on Sunday that the risk of inflation is small and manageable.  Funding for President Biden’s next major economic plan is reportedly … Read more

Macro Commentary:  By: Ariel Segal Nonfarm payrolls beat estimates on Friday, increasing by 379k, reflecting a surge in leisure and hospitality employment. The re-opening of services will be a significant driving factor in the coming months for payroll numbers. Factory orders also beat estimates last week. CPI on Wednesday and PPI on Friday will be … Read more

Macro Commentary:  By: Ariel Segal Strong economic data last week including durable goods orders, new home sales, wholesale inventories, and lower than expected initial jobless claims were contributors to the elevated concerns of inflation seen through the recent volatility in Treasuries. The increasing Fed Q1 GDP forecast also played a large role. The month-to-date increase … Read more

Macro Commentary:  By: Ariel Segal January retail sales came in hot on Wednesday, beating all estimates with its largest advance since June. Overall sales value increased 5.3%, bolstered by stimulus checks and a curb in Covid-19 cases. Online shopping and food services saw increases in sales of 11% and 6.9% respectively.  Chinese foreign minister Wang … Read more

Macro Commentary:  By: Ariel Segal CPI month over month was reported to be 0.3% on Wednesday, in line with expectations. Initial jobless claims were 793k, lower from the previous week (812k), but remains at an elevated level. The European Commission cut the euro-area GDP growth forecast from 4.2% to 3.8% attributing the decrease to the … Read more

Macro Commentary:  By: Ariel Segal Nonfarm payrolls for the month of January disappointed on Friday with only 49k jobs added, a little less than half of survey expectations. Additionally, the December number was revised downward by 87k. Continuing the unwelcome trend, leisure and hospitality led job loss in January with payrolls falling by 61k. The … Read more

Things That Make You Go Hmmm…  By: George Boyan Timing the Market versus Time In the Market Our regular readers know that we strongly prefer the latter.  The world’s most successful investors advocate that the primary determinant of long term returns are the amount of time that one is invested in the markets. However, a … Read more